Well… I am cautiously optimistic.  The Dow hit 10,000 today, briefly, and a “painful recovery” is nothing in light of 80% of economists saying “The Recession is Over”. What’s more – It isn’t just the normal public mags, but trade mags are being VERY cautious in saying… “recession lifting, let’s get back to it!”.  In fact, not many are even highlighting articles about it… it is just a general “how to weather the rest of it”, “ideas for getting out of the recession” and the like.  There are articles like this (and here about a community’s B&Bs, and I have seen many like this about international markets)  all over the internet… little niches surviving or doing great!

It is a good feeling to see people conversing about an end to our economic woes.  Of course, I don’t forget that it is the talk and panic that drives the initial problem, as well as talk and optimism that can drive us out of the “mud” on our bottom line…… that is……decidedly….. black.  In fact, that negativity and existential concern about hotels and their future still pervades the news feeds.  But let’s not give the time of day to those who pander to the lowest common denominator… let’s look at a tried and true brand who’s consistent and professional tone to the industry is a good earmark for our collective concerns:  Marriott’s blog post.

I think it sums up the problem we hoteliers currently have… we would like to celebrate the dow at 10K, or the economists reporting, en masse, “it’s getting much better!”.  The problem is the reality, and that many hotels in standard, normal markets can feel the pinch for some time longer.

Another reason to hesitate…. we are growing, but current growth is *slow*.  I don’t have the articles on me, but I do know that lenders are still holding all the keys because the value of properties since 2007 have basically halved (Hotel Business Vol. 18 No. 19 Oct 7-20, 2009)… which is ground shakingly tragic.  The foreclosured and distressed will hit the market soon, and more problems will be discovered than are currently known.  But on the other side of this coin, it is time for equity and ownership to start finding PHENOMENAL deals.  Everyone should be able to buy a hotel in the coming year (joke)….

Economic recovery and slow growth is one thing… but we are hotels, and we might need to take a closer look at the national unemployment rate.  The economy might be recovering, but our industry is so COMPLETELY controlled by labour and unemployment, I am worried it will give a false sense of security when certain segments might still get hit hard.   I saw Tom Callahan the other day from PKF in San Francisco, and he said the basic consensus is that we will not hit q4 2007 or q1 2008 ADR and RevPar until 2014… which is…. depressing.  But it is only a climb up from here.  As long as you retained some rate parity, the property should be able to bounce back.  If you are like Vegas, you may have dug a hole so deep, you will have issues “digging up”. =)

(To be fair, even some people think that Vegas is finally on an upswing, or at least battling the recession.  True their tourism is down, their rooms are empty…. but finishing City Center in a climate like this is amazing, and frankly… although they are reducing flats @ $2000 / sq ft possibly to below $1000 / sq ft…. I am shocked 55% of it has been sold.)

All this being told… I think the slide and panic is over.  Our awful day at the beach is done, and what happens next is shaking out the blanket to clear the sand…. and we will see what is jarred loose from the hotel economic fabric.  The problems that are still to come are not pro-longed troubles for hotels, it is simply the back end of the recession working itself out.  Until then…. buckle up…. I doubt it will be too bumpy a drive home, but it’s gonna be a long ride.

Yes I am fully aware of how many metaphors I used in this.  =)  Good luck EVERY SINGLE ONE OF YOU… be well, hang tough… and see you on the other side!

They want your money for advertising, but won’t do much to help you moderate untruthful reviews.  What’s more, I note once you are “in” with the sales team, your point of contact makes the wheels turn ever so fast.

Which is fine, but then it limits the low revenue mom and pop’s ability to moderate and creates a gap between the have’s and have nots.  Isn’t there always one somewhere?

We all know the silly owners that lash out with libel suits:

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/travelbuzz/810335-hotels-contacting-posters-tripadvisor-com-about-negative-reviews.html

But my concern is when owners don’t feel they have an outlet or anywhere to complain about lack of responsiveness to ownership.  I have noted this with yelp too.. that they constantly err on the side of the consumer, while attempting to get ownership’s marketing dollars to bolster their ad model revenues?  This seems like an inherent flaw doesn’t it?

http://www.travelblog.org/Forum/Threads/12462-1.html

people airing grievances about the fact TA’s “get the truth and go” is sort of BS….

http://ideasandthoughts.org/2007/04/25/tripadvisor-as-a-model-of-social-networking-and-critical-thinking/

the positive idealism of the post gets mired in a business owner cruising the internet just looking for help and to vent…

http://blogs.bookassist.com/blogs/industry/2008/05/responding-to-tripadvisor-reviews-of.html

the comments go south pretty quick….

Owners are being ignored, and they are thirsty for help and action… to be able to earnestly and efficaciously resolve complaints, issues, and problems.  Many want to act on social media, but haven’t the foggiest as to how.  What’s more, if sites like Trip Advisor ignore this base for too long, they might lose out on a potential community opportunity.  I am not sure if they could leverage the businesses a bit more like Yelp has done, or strengthen their brand by having people identify with the site from both the content generating side, and the business side.

But whatever the case, this is just a couple of unhappy business owners.  I just saw it all the time, and thought I would bring it up.  Anyone else have stories from ownership end?  Let em fly!